By Amy Do
A survey of current data reveals that the everyday experience of job seekers is at odds with overall economic trends that point to long-term growth. Companies are utilizing generative artificial intelligence at scale, increasing competition for online freelancers. The median duration of unemployment is growing, which means the average job search is taking longer than before. Furthermore, some employers are laying off more than they’re hiring.
However, early predictions from the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics show that there’s potential for things to get easier over the next few years. Read on for a brief summary of a variety of sources to stay informed about what’s happening in the job market, and what might be coming next.
- CBS Moneywatch: For an increasing number of Americans, it’s taking months to find a new job as labor market slows by Aimee Picchi
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/job-market-2024-employment-search-takes-months-december-jobs-report
This is a great short read if you want the lowdown on what’s going on in the job market. Forgive the lengthy quote, but Picchi says it best:
“About 40% of the 7 million people who were out of work in October, or roughly 2.84 million people, have been looking for work for more than 15 weeks, an increase of 20% since a year earlier, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. More than half of those job seekers have been on the hunt for new employment for more than 27 weeks, or about half a year.“
Job hunting could be taking longer for a myriad of reasons. The CBS article focuses specifically on election anxiety, the automotive industry, and how the Federal Reserve is involved in all of it. I’m not a financial expert so I don’t really understand the nitty gritty, but I appreciated this quote from ZipRecruiter chief economist Julia Pollak: “(The current job market reflects) low hiring, low firing and low job-switching… It’s this ‘big stay’-type of situation — it’s great if you have a job you like, and it’s not great if you don’t have a job.” In short, employers are hiring less and slower.
October 2024 was the slowest month for hiring since December 2020. Reasons cited include labor disputes, strikes, and natural disasters. It’s fascinating to think about how the world really is all connected.
A note: this article was written before the release of the November Jobs Report from the Labor department, so it doesn’t cite the newest statistics available. I think the most interesting thing about this article is the phenomenon of the “Big Stay”.
- Harvard Business Review: How Gen AI Is Already Impacting the Labor Market by Ozge Demirci, Jonaas Hannane, Xinrong Zhu
https://hbr.org/2024/11/research-how-gen-ai-is-already-impacting-the-labor-market
If you’re a freelancer who’s noticed that the job market has gotten much more competitive over the past few years, you’d be right! This great short read dives into the impact that artificial intelligence has had on online freelance job postings.
The study analyzed over 1.3 million job posts from July 2021-July 2023. One key finding is that the introduction of ChatGPT led to “nearly immediate decreases’ in online gig work posts. Writing jobs were most affected with an over 30% decrease, which isn’t surprising given the show-stopping demos of GPT3 and 4’s ability to write entire chapters of novels, tweets, and working code with the correct prompt.
The writers observed “…significant short-term job replacement after these tools were introduced, and that jobs prone to automation, like writing and coding, were the most affected by ChatGPT.”
Image generating tools like Stable Diffusion, Midjourney, and Dall-E 3 led to Graphic Design and 3D modeling freelance positions decreasing by 17%.
The number of postings showed no signs of rebound, indicating a growing trend of job replacement. These tools are likely going to be in use for the long run, despite observations around the environmental impact and questions surrounding fair use for algorithmic training material. This increases competition among freelancers with a smaller pool of listed positions.
The data in this article dovetails well with the idea of ‘The Big Stay’. Freelancers who have an existing backbone of good clientele will have an easier time vs. early career/pivoters who are looking to attract new clients. Established freelancers have networks and referrals that exist outside of the online job posting ecosystem, which means they’ll be impacted with less immediacy by the rise of genAI. Overall this article paints a comprehensive portrait of generative artificial intelligence’s impact on the job market, which backs up quantitatively a lot of what I’ve heard anecdotally in coaching sessions.
A note: Demirci, Hannane, and Zhu also cite an academic article that points out gender disparities in AI usage. I personally found it really fascinating and plan on doing a deeper dive over the next few weeks.
- The Employment Situation (November 2024) by The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Employment Situation report, colloquially known as “The Jobs Report” is from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS is a part of the U.S. Department of Labor, which is a part of the Executive Branch of the U.S. Government. They’re in charge of measuring what’s going on in the labor market, working conditions, price changes, and how all these things impact the U.S. economy.
If you enjoy tables, statistics, and parsing out financial terminology, the BLS is a great place to start. A lot of mainstream news outlets provide data visualizations and reporting that make this raw data more palatable to the financial layperson (like me!) but it’s always good to know where the information is coming from.
The main takeaway from the November 2024 jobs report is that the job market seems to have bounced back slightly from the dip in October. The report’s data says that employment, “trended up in health care, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs,” which makes sense due to the seasonal hiring dip between Halloween and end-of-year holidays. There’s a sector-by-sector breakdown within the document if you’re curious!
- Unemployment Rate Drops To 4.6 Percent, Lowest Level Since 2007 by Camila Domonoske
https://www.wbez.org/news/2016/12/02/unemployment-rate-drops-to-4-6-percent-lowest-level-since-2007
This short article from Chicago’s WBEZ summarizes the key findings of the Jobs Report, and puts some stuff in context.
Low unemployment is generally a good thing, but the data is aggregate for the entire U.S. Domonoske writes that,“employment varies by region and demographic, so the fruits of full employment aren’t shared by all”. A very low rate of unemployment, however, can have negative consequences, such as inflation, which we’ve definitely seen over the past few years.
Domonoske observed that wages, “dropped slightly in November, instead of showing a hoped-for increase, although they are still 2.5 percent higher than this time last year”. This means that the amount that people are being paid, depending on the position, is not keeping up with inflation.
The article concludes by saying that it’s likely the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates slightly before the end of the year in an effort to curb inflation. This article is a great summary of key findings from the Jobs Report, and a good jumping-off point for those who are curious about how the job market relates to the economy as a whole. I also appreciated Domonoske’s inclusivity when discussing demographics and gender disparities in the data.
A big part of my job as a career coach is to stay up to date about nationwide trends and job market data. I’m thinking about making this article roundup a quarterly series- let me know if you find this interesting!
If you feel like any of the observations or data resonates with you, and you want to know how to maximize your chances of success in your job search, I would love to work with you! Give our front desk a call and say that you’d like to meet with Amy. The DePaul Career Center is open to all prospective, current, and past DePaul students.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Not sure what the future holds? Need support along the way? That’s exactly where we come in. Whether you’re a freshman or an alumnus, it’s never too early (or too late) to utilize our services.
Book an appointment with Amy, or another member of the advising community through Handshake, or by calling the front desk at (773) 325-7431.